Prediction of Arnav Vijay Paparkar vs Rohan Mehra at M25 Bhopal 11-27-25

• Arnav Vijay Paparkar has a slight advantage on second serve points, winning 49.36%, compared to Rohan Mehra's 48.06%. Could this impact the match outcome? It could, given the high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
• In return games, Mehra slightly edges Paparkar by winning 41.13% of second serve return points, whereas Paparkar wins 40.85%. Interestingly, Paparkar leads on first serve returns with 26.49% compared to Mehra's 21.76%, potentially giving him an edge in crucial moments.
• Under pressure, Mehra has shown strength by saving 61.29% of breakpoints, compared to Paparkar's 51.11%. This might suggest Mehra is better equipped to handle key points in matches.
• In terms of overall match performance over the last year, Mehra's winning percentage is 60.71% (17 wins out of 28 matches), illustrating a more successful period than Paparkar’s 33.33% (2 wins out of 6 matches).
• Both players seem equally competent on hard surfaces, with a career win percentage of 29%. However, this does not significantly differentiate them in surface preference.
• Considering the competitive level, Mehra has a higher success rate in Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments ($10K level), with a winning percentage of 60.71%. Paparkar is at 40%, indicating Mehra’s stronger performance at this event level.
• Mehra has faced generally tougher opponents, with an average rank of 270.79, compared to Paparkar’s opponents averaging a rank of 307. This could imply that Mehra is more experienced against higher-ranked competition.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Mehra again holds the advantage, having won 67% of such sets, while Paparkar has prevailed in 50% over the last year.

Editorial Prediction (November 26, 2025, UTC):

In assessing the predicted outcome of this upcoming match, both players show specific strengths. Arnav Vijay Paparkar presents a marginally better second serve performance, which could influence game momentum.

However, Rohan Mehra demonstrates superior performance under pressure, with higher breakpoint saving stats. Additionally, his overall match win-rate is notably better than Paparkar's, suggesting consistent higher-level play.

Mehra's experience against more highly ranked opponents and greater success in deciding sets are significant indicators of his capability to excel in tight situations.

Given these factors, Rohan Mehra appears to be the likely candidate to win this matchup, based on his current form and competitive history.